ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME HEAVY RAINS ON THE RELIABILITY OF HYDRAULIC STRUCTURES
https://doi.org/10.26897/1997-6011-2021-4-99-105
Abstract
The article on the observations of weather stations in the south-west of the Chernozem (Black Earth) zone of Russia checks the main hypothesis about the increase in the maximum daily precipitation which is the basis for calculating the maximum water consumption when designing reservoirs of hydraulic structures on small catchments. Statistical calculations showed a clear regional trend towards an increase in the maximum daily precipitation over time. Studies have confirmed a significant asymmetry in the distribution of their values, the ratio between the coefficients of asymmetry and variation ranges from 2 to 5. It isnoted that there is currently no sufficiently accurate method for determining the coefficients of asymmetry, therefore, approaches to their expert assessment have been proposed. It isrecommended to estimate the normative values of the maximum daily precipitation for erosion calculations using empirical probability curves. Thus, in the current regulatory documents intended for the design of hydraulic structures, there are shortcomings in the methods for determining hydro meteorological characteristics which leads to a decrease in their operational reliability during the passage of dangerous rain floods. The necessity of appropriate updating of the existing regulatory documents is substantiated.
About the Authors
N. P. Karpenko
Russian State Agrarian University - Moscow Agricultural Academy named after C.A. Timiryazev
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. A. Naumova
Russian State Agrarian University - Moscow Agricultural Academy named after C.A. Timiryazev
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
V. V. Iljinich
Russian State Agrarian University - Moscow Agricultural Academy named after C.A. Timiryazev
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Karpenko N.P., Naumova A.A., Iljinich V.V. ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME HEAVY RAINS ON THE RELIABILITY OF HYDRAULIC STRUCTURES. Prirodoobustrojstvo. 2021;(4):99-105. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26897/1997-6011-2021-4-99-105
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