Аccounting and assessment of non-stationarity in the management of river basin water resources

This   paper   considers  the   rationale  for   taking  into   account   and   assessing the  non-stationarity  of  the  development  of  hydrological  processes  in  the  Volga  River   basin   when determining the  parameters of  the  functioning of  the  Volga  water  management  system. The  main purpose  of the study is to identify non-stationarity in the formation of river runoff  and  develop methods for its assessment. The problem  of constructing a dynamic-stochastic model  is solved,  which  takes  into account  the non-stationarity of the formation of river runoff  in different periods of time.  A generalization of the dynamic-stochastic approach for the analysis and evaluation of long-term fluctuations in the inflow of river  waters  of the  Volga  River  near  the  city  of Volgograd   is  made.   The  stochastic relationship between  the  runoff  of adjacent years  is expressed  by the  transition function that  controls  the  Markov process.  Stationarity  (non-stationarity) of long-term fluctuations  in  river  runoff   was  assessed  using the Fisher criterion (homogeneity of sample variances), Student’s criterion (homogeneity of sample means), Kolmogorov-Smirnov criterion   (homogeneity of  samples) and  pair  correlation (presence  of  a  trend). The description of the nature of the flow of hydrological processes is represented by a model  determined by  the  dynamic-stochastic  approach  when   considering  the  non-stationary  process  of  the  annual flow  of the  Volga  River.  Based  on the  application of the  concept  of quasi-stationarity, the  functions of the availability of the annual flow of the Volga River  are obtained, which  are used for a probabilistic assessment of the  inflow  of river  waters  in  the  Volga  basin.  The  analysis of long-term fluctuations of the annual runoff  of the Volga River  made  it possible  to reveal that  the variability of the river runoff of the  studied basin  has  two  components – deterministic and  random. The  deterministic component manifests itself in the change in time of the average value of the flow of the Volga River, and the random component is observed in the irregular annual deviations of the flow from its average value (norm).  This approach is used in the probabilistic assessment of the inflow of river waters in the Volga river basin.

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