Analysis and forecast of river waters in the Volga river runoff formation zone by the trends method

The results of the study on the analysis, generalization and forecast of changes in the average annual and seasonal volumes (flows) of the Volga River to Volgograd (the formation zone) are presented. For the forecast, time flow series are used for the periods 1881/1882-2020/2021, N-140 years and 1914/1915/2020/2021, N-107 years. These periods are accepted as the basic periods characterizing the formation of the Volga River flow to Volgograd. It is revealed that the long-term fluctuations of the Volga River flow contain three periods, the first series, two periods, the second series, significantly differing in average annual values. It is established that these periods under consideration are characterized, along with statistical long-term averages, by dynamic ones, which are functions in time. Also, the multidirectional trend (trends) in the considered flow time series are revealed. Functional equations for the identified trends for these periods are obtained. Thus, the presence of cycles and trends, in the long-term fluctuations of annual and seasonal values of river water inflow, as well as functional equations serve as the scientific basis for their prediction for certain periods of time in the future, including the first half of the XXI century. The analysis based on sufficiently long time series of the river Volga to Volgograd shows that in the future there is a high probability of manifestation of different intensity of annual and seasonal flow due to its characteristic cyclical fluctuations. Confirmation of this, in particular, is the identification of changes in the nature of the trend of annual fluctuations in the flow of the Volga River in Volgograd.

trend, trendency, average long-term flow value, norm, linear and nonlinear relationships, forecasting, functional equation, long-term flow fluctuations, calculation periods, statistical and dynamic norms of river flow

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