Climate transformation of the central region of the non-chernozem zone in the context of global warming

Abstract

The article analyzed the change in the agro-climatic conditions of the Central region of the Non-chernozem zone for the period from 1981 to 2020 and established new boundaries of soybean sowing in the region. Based on the similarity of temperature and humidity conditions during the growing season, the authors identified 3 agro-climatic subzones – northern, central and southern. It was found that the temperature increase in May averaged 3-4°C. At the beginning of the analyzed period, the average monthly temperatures in May were 12.8°C in the northern agro-climatic subzone, 14.0°C in the central and 13.6°C in the southern, then by 2020 these temperature values were 16.8°C, 17.2°C and 18.9°C, respectively. In August, the average monthly temperatures also increased by an average of 2-3°C, which generally has a positive effect on ensuring favorable growing conditions for crops in general, and in particular soybeans. The amounts of active temperatures have also increased. If at the beginning of the analyzed period they averaged 1800-1950°C for the subzones, at present their values are 1900-2200°C. As a result of the analysis of the amounts of precipitation by month, it was found that in May their number increased by an average of 16-18 mm, while in August the value of this indicator decreased by an average of 20-25 mm from year to year. The shift of the northern permissible limit of soybean introduction in the European territory of the country has been established, the most suitable are the southern agroecological subzone, as well as part of the regions of the central subzone. Cultivation of soybeans of the northern ecotype, as well as semi-determinant varieties recommended for more southern regions, is recommended in this territory.