Experience of computer simulation of flood runoff of the Kuban river to the Krasnodar reservoir based on the DWAT model

Abstract

The article is dedicated to PC modeling of the maximum water runoff of the Kuban rivers flowing to the Krasnodar reservoir after the storm rains. A mathematical model of the «precipitation-runoff» type - DWAT was used. This model is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization for use on rivers with flash floods, based on river survey digital elevation models and storm rain forecasts. A possibility of using proposed approach, the estimated possibility of using DWAT for short-term forecasting of flood inflow to the Krasnodar reservoir based on storm precipitation at predictor meteorological stations, which is tentatively assessed based on the analysis of the dependence of the main elements of floods on the storm rain characteristics. In addition to the digital relief model, the model uses georeferenced layers of data on vegetation, land use types and soils of the catchment area. In general, the article shows the process of entering and processing data into the model. The obtained final simulation results, expressed by the forecast hydrograph, are compared with the observed true values. The forecasted flood graphs correspond sufficiently to the observed ones and in general the maximum water discharges of the forecasted floods obtained using the model under study for previous precipitation are for the most part slightly higher than the observed ones, which is partly explained by the spatial data due to map resolution used. The use of more detailed source data and map resolution may improve the final result.