Simulation model of the spread and occurrence of forest fires, taking into account wind dynamics

 The article presents the development of a simulation model for the spread of forest fires, considering wind dynamics, which was implemented in the AnyLogic environment. The model is based on a synthesis of cellular automata and agent-based approaches, allowing for the consideration of spatial heterogeneity in forest cover, topographical features of the area, and dynamic changes in meteorological conditions. The mathematical apparatus of the model consists of modified Rotermel equations, supplemented by the parameterization of wind action through a vector field that considers average velocity and turbulent components. Qualitative changes in the fire dynamics are observed in this model. The results obtained emphasize the significance of considering wind dynamics and non-linear effects when simulating forest fires. The developed model can be used to address the challenges of operational forecasting of fire-hazardous situations, optimizing fire extinguishing resources, and assessing the effectiveness of firefighting measures. Future research opportunities lie in integrating real-time remote sensing data and developing adaptive control algorithms for extreme conditions.

1. Prikhodko M.A. Forest fires in the Moscow region as an environmental problem / M.A. Prikhodko, A.V. Lapaev, V.I. Fomina, O.M. Melnikov // High technologies in the construction complex. 2023. No. 1. P. 156-160. EDN: GHZHZHO

2. Fomin A.Yu. The choice and justification of processing methods, assessment of the reliability of experimental results / A.Yu. Fomin, A.V. Lapaev, E.N. Khalilov // Science and education: experience, problems, development prospects: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University, Krasnoyarsk, April 19-21, 2022. Volume Part 2. Krasnoyarsk: Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University, 2022. P. 131-134. EDN: AKKOTO

3. Fomin A.Yu. Additional reality of emulation land relief and emergency situations in agricultural equipment simulators / A.Y. Fomin, A.S. Apatenko, N.S. Sevryugina, A.A. Losev // Agroengineering. 2022. VOL. 24, No. 4. P. 64-68. DOI: 10.26897/2687-1149-2022-4-64-68. EDN: MDJWJT

4. Scientific and analytical review of resource-saving technologies in the operation of technical means in the agro–industrial complex / A.S. Apatenko, I.N. Kravchenko, N.S. Sevryugina [et al.]. – Saratov: Limited Liability Company “Amirit”, 2023. 152 p. ISBN 978-5-00207-449-5. EDN: DZPMNS

5. Gornostaev V.I. Functional description of the elements of the transport support system for environmental management facilities / V.I. Gornostaev, S.I. Nekrasov // Reports of the TLC, Moscow, December 03-05, 2019. Volume 292, Part I. Moscow: Russian State University of Architecture, 2020. P. 555-557. EDN: DICARL

6. Sevryugina N.S., Apatenko A.S., Voitovich E.V. Ecosystem risks in the functioning of water management complexes // Prirodoobustrojstvo. 2020. № 2. P. 115-122. DOI: 10.26897/1997-6011/2020-2-115-122 EDN: BJVTGX

7. Golubev I.G., Apatenko A.S., Sevryugina N.S. The state and prospects of involving fallow lands in circulation. 2021. № 3(97). P. 67-74. EDN: SIRIHE

8. Khoruzhiy L.I. Application of the concept of lean production in the accounting and analytical system of agricultural organizations / L.I. Khoruzhiy, Yu.N. Katkov, A.A. Romanova A.Yu. Fomin // Accounting in agriculture. 2023. No. 5. P. 262-271. DOI: 10.33920/sel-11-2305-01

9. Sevryugina N.S., Apatenko A.S., Golubev I.G. [et al.] Technologies and Technical Means of Reclamation of Fallow Lands with Regulation of the Soil Moisture Level // Prirodoostroistvoistvo. 2023. № 3. P. 38-44. DOI: 10.26897/1997-6011-2023-3-38-44. EDN: HZXHKE

10. Stokes B.J., Alexander M.E., McAlpin R.S., and others. The Canadian Forest Fire Hazard Assessment System. Canadian Forest Service, 1987. 500 p.

11. Kurbatskiy N.P., Kostyrina T.V. The national fire hazard calculation system of the USA // Detection and analysis of forest fires: collection of articles. Krasnoyarsk: ILiD SB of the USSR Academy of Sciences, 1977. P. 38-90.

12. Deeming J.E., Lancaster J.W., Fosberg M.A., Furman R.V., Schroeder M.J. National Fire Hazard Assessment System of the Forest Service of the US Department of Agriculture – Research document RM-84, February 1972. 165 p.

13. Garcia Diez E.L., Rivas Soriano L., de Pablo F., Garcia Diez A. Forecasting the daily number of forest fires. International Journal of Forest Fires. 1999. Volume 9, No. 3. P. 207-211. DOI: 10.1071GWF00003

14. Viegas D.H., Bovio G., Ferreira A., Nosenzo A., Sol B. Comparative study of various fire hazard assessment methods in Southern Europe. International Journal of Forest Fires. 1999. Volume 9, No. 4. P. 235-246. doi: 10.1071GWF00015.

15. Nesterov V.G. Forest hilliness and methods of its determination. Moscow: Goslesbumizdat, 1949. 76 p.

16. Grishin A.M., Baranovsky N.V. Comparative analysis of simple models of LGM layer drying, including experimental data and field observations. / / Engineering and Physics Journal. 2003. Vol. 76, Number / 5. P. 166-169.

17. Grishin A.M., Filkov A.I. Forecast of occurrence and spread of forest fires. Kemerovo: Praktika Publ, 2005. 202 p.

18. Grishin A.M., Kataeva L.Yu., Loboda E.L. Mathematical modeling of drying of a layer of forest combustible materials // Computing technologies. 2001. Vol. 6. Special issue. (Proceedings of the RDAMM-2001 International Conference), part 2, P. 140-144.

19. Sobbotin A.N. Mathematical model of the spread of the word “forest hunting” // Fire safety. 2008. No. 1. P. 109-116.

20. Perminov V.A. Mathematical modeling of the spread of the common man’s polyphony / / Engineering technologies. 2006. Vol. 11, Part 3. P. 109-116.

21. Grishin A.M., Perminov V.A. Gorenje i complexov Transition from simple to complex / / Physics of combustion and explosion. 1990. Vol. 26, No. 6. P. 27-35. EDN: VCOOGT

22. Kulekh R.N., Sabbotin A.N. Excitation of peat regardless of the local heat source / / Help-safety. 2009. Vol. 18, No. 4. P. 13-18.

23. Preister H.K., Brillinger D.R., Burgan R.E., Benoit J.V. Probabilistic models for assessing the risk of forest fires // International Journal of Forest Fires. 2004. Volume 13, No. 2. P. 133-142. doi: 10.1071/WF02061.