Short-term forecasting of natural water turbidity for operational regulation of its water treatment

The aim of this study is to develop a methodology for short-term forecasting of natural water turbidity in order to enable prompt regulation of the coagulation-filtration treatment process. The quality of natural water is subject to variability that necessitates operational adjustment of the water treatment regime. Such regulation can be effective only if changes in the hydrochemical composition of the raw water are anticipated through analysis and forecasting. This problem was addressed in relation to the turbidity of water supplied to the water treatment facilities of Angarsk, Ussuriysk, and Khabarovsk. The study employed autocorrelation analysis and seasonal decomposition of the data, which revealed that in all examined cases the time series exhibited trends, seasonality, and cyclical components. Consequently, the forecasting methodology must be statistical in nature. It was established that the methodology implemented in the Prophet software package meets the necessary requirements, providing a satisfactory forecast over a time horizon sufficient for preventive regulation of the water treatment process. The extrapolation of this methodology is recommended for other variable indicators of the composition and properties of natural water to support sustainable water supply.

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